The foreign exchange management for the machinery manufacturing industry –Based on the exchange rate of USD/CNYTools Feng, Kunxian (2019) The foreign exchange management for the machinery manufacturing industry –Based on the exchange rate of USD/CNY. [Dissertation (University of Nottingham only)]
AbstractThe purpose of this paper is to construct a foreign exchange management plan for the machinery manufacturing industry. This paper concentrated on the exchange of USD/CNY and the foreign trade of machinery products between China and the United States. Basically, the paper can be separated into two parts. Firstly, the paper calculated the net foreign exposure to the whole industry. The paper used the export and import volume of machinery manufacturing industry from 2014 to 2019 to forecast the net volume in the following one year. In the forecasting part, the appropriate ARIMA models were selected for these variables. Then it also forecasted the exchange rate based on the appropriate ARIMA model. The forecasting results presented in the paper. According to the result of the first part, the second part of this paper focused on designing customized foreign exchange management. The foreign exchange management considered how the change of the exchange rate in the future and the characteristics of financial instruments. Furthermore, in the management plan, the hedging proportion of the net exposure will be determined by the risk preference according to the fuzzy logic theory. The flow charts are given below to show the whole procedure of foreign exchange management.
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