Modelling the dryland agricultural systems of Q’a Shubayqa, JordanTools Ben Mustapha, ALI (2025) Modelling the dryland agricultural systems of Q’a Shubayqa, Jordan. PhD thesis, University of Nottingham.
AbstractThis project investigates a rainfed agricultural system in the drylands of north-eastern Jordan. The study area, Q’a Shubayqa, is characterized by very low rainfall rates but supports a cereal-based mono-cropping system. Local farmers were surveyed to define the main components of the agricultural system and its limiting factors. Farmers confirmed that system productivity has been affected by climate change and severe weather events during the last three decades. Results of the farmer survey and remote sensing and climate data analyses have shown that growth and development of cultivated wheat and barley crops in Q’a Shubayqa mainly depend on seasonal flash-floods that occurs following winter rainfall in the south-western highlands of Syria. Hydrological SWAT modelling of the study area watershed, undertaken for a long-term period to quantify flood water has shown unstable patterns in terms of quantity and timing which would affect cereal planting dates. Historical grain yield simulations using genetic coefficients of the studied cultivars, that were derived in this study from observed data collected from different environments across Jordan and over different seasons, have shown that planting date is a limiting factor for both crop types. Using these DSATT models the impact of different climate change scenarios through to 2100, on grain yield and grain filling period was investigated. Most of studied cultivars were sensitive to future climate change where grain yields decreased, and grain filling period reduced. The effect of high atmospheric CO2 levels on grain yield was limited with a slight increasing but gain yield still below the grain yield baseline. The impacts of additional agricultural practices were evaluated when simulating grain yield under future climate change considering high atmospheric CO2 levels and results showed that delayed planting date has decreased grain yield, however organic amendment positively affected grain production. Results suggest that wheat cultivar Hourani and barley cultivar Rum are less affected by climate change.
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