Azari, Majid
(2024)
Spatio-temporal modelling of land use/land cover and climate change effects on surface runoff and river discharge in the Klang River basin.
PhD thesis, University of Nottingham.
Abstract
Urbanisation, climate change, and their impacts on hydrological processes are a growing concern in urban watersheds around the world. This research examined the complex relationship between land use and land cover (LULC) change, precipitation variability, and their combined spatio-temporal impacts on surface runoff and river discharge in the Klang River basin, Malaysia.
The research utilised an integrated approach, combining outputs from LULC and climate models with a hydrological model. Trend analysis of LULC, precipitation, and temperature were also carried out, to detect trends in these parameters.
The maximum likelihood algorithm and The Decision Forest – Markov Chain models were used for LULC classification and LULC change modelling. Mann-Kendall and Sen’s Slope statistical methods were used for trend analysis. Lastly, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used for the hydrological modelling of surface runoff and river discharge.
The results of the study, reveal a significant trend in LULC, mostly attributed to the increasing trend in urban land, where urban areas increased by 147.5 km² (11.8 %), and natural vegetation decreased by 73.4 km² (5.9%) in the period 1999 to 2017. Similarly, increasing trends were observed in precipitation intensity and frequency in urban areas. An increasing trend was also detected in temperature, specifically land surface temperature.
The hydrological modelling results demonstrate the relationship between these changes and increased surface runoff and river discharge. The results also illustrate that LULC changes have a more significant impact on hydrological processes compared to climate change, especially in urbanised regions.
However, the magnitude and contribution of these changes are still uncertain in many watersheds in Malaysia. Hence, this study addressed the gap in research by integrating the impact of both LULC change and climate change variables on hydrological processes, where previous studies only considered one or the other.
The outcome of the quantitative analysis of this study can help policymakers prioritise the protection and conservation of urban green spaces and forests, implement green and climate-resilient infrastructure, and consider the potential future impacts of both LULC and climate change on hydrological processes in urban planning and decision making.
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