The effect of macroeconomic variables on stock return during both non-covid and covid periods in the Chinese market

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Wan, Yuxiao (2022) The effect of macroeconomic variables on stock return during both non-covid and covid periods in the Chinese market. [Dissertation (University of Nottingham only)]

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Abstract

This paper investigates the relationship between five macroeconomic factors and stock return in the Chinese market and explores if this plausible relationship could be varied during the covid-19 period and the non-covid period. The five macroeconomic factors researched in this paper are exchange rate, inflation, real GDP, interest rate and real money supply respectively, the stock returns refer to the returns of components stocks within three indices (SSE 50, SZSE 100, SCI 300). These data are collected from relevant academic databases for the years between 2012 to 2022 (10 years).

After adjusting independent variables into merge, the Pooled Ordinary Least Square (OLS) is feasible to be implemented, and in the OLS test, the double cluster standard error technique is implemented to eliminate the potential heteroskedasticity and serial correlation problems. The total estimations are divided into three approaches, one approaches for estimating the overall effect of macroeconomic factors, the second approach is adding dummy variables to specially test the impact of covid-19, and the final approach is to do the test on each stock market for two different periods, the comparison of the two different period result would suggest the more accurate result.

The result from the first approach suggests that exchange rate and real gdp would play significant roles overall in a positive way. The second and third approaches suggest similar results that covid-19 may influence the relationship between macroeconomic factors and stock returns, the relationship might be strengthened or slackened by covid-19 and the extent depends on different markets, although the statistics suggest insignificant function and the result is reckoned to be not conclusive.

Item Type: Dissertation (University of Nottingham only)
Depositing User: Wan, Yuxiao
Date Deposited: 21 Jun 2023 14:10
Last Modified: 21 Jun 2023 14:10
URI: https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/id/eprint/70031

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