The Impact of Macroeconomic Variables on Overall and Segmented Stock Market Returns in China

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HU, YING (2020) The Impact of Macroeconomic Variables on Overall and Segmented Stock Market Returns in China. [Dissertation (University of Nottingham only)]

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Abstract

In this study, three models will be constructed to explore the relationship between stock returns and macroeconomic variables in the CSI 300 overall stock market, the computer industry, and the pharmaceutical industry using ordinary least squares-multiple regression models over a 247-month period from January 2000 to June 2020. Among the seven macroeconomic variables used is the lagged change in stock returns, the lagged change in the exchange rate, the lagged change in the inflation rate, the lagged change in the price of crude oil, the lagged change in the index of industrial production, the lagged change in the import rate, and the lagged change in the growth rate of the money supply.

Empirical results have indicated that the exchange rate, as well as crude oil prices, have a positive impact on overall stock returns, while inflation has a negative impact on them, import interest rates discourage the growth of overall stock returns and the growth rate of money supply has a facilitating effect on overall stock returns. In regard to the computer industry, the import interest rate and the growth rate of money supply have a depressing and promoting influence on its stock returns, respectively. Whereas, for the medical industry, the growth rates of crude oil prices and money supply have a remarkable boosting effect on stock returns, while the import interest rate has a suppressing effect. This indicates that different industries are affected differently by macroeconomic variables due to different modes of market operations.

Item Type: Dissertation (University of Nottingham only)
Depositing User: HU, Ying
Date Deposited: 14 Apr 2023 09:12
Last Modified: 14 Apr 2023 09:12
URI: https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/id/eprint/62515

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