The Relationship between Exchange Rate, Crude Oil Prices and Primary Commodity Prices
Gyurova, Zlatina (2011) The Relationship between Exchange Rate, Crude Oil Prices and Primary Commodity Prices. [Dissertation (University of Nottingham only)] (Unpublished)
Oil price movements are found to affect the exchange rate fluctuations in the past. On the other hand, exchange rates have an impact on the imports and exports and hence, influence the commodity prices. At the same time, crude oil prices are found to affect the primary commodities demand and production. To understand the relationship between the exchange rate fluctuations and crude oil prices, as well as the relationship between exchange rate fluctuations, crude oil prices and primary commodity prices, a Johansen cointegration approach is conducted for 20-year period between 1991 and 2011. Moreover, the total sample period is divided into sub-sample periods in order to provide unbiased and more accurate results. Empirical results showed that only for the period between 2006 and 2008, crude oil prices, primary commodity prices and exchange rates are cointegrated. Therefore, these factors might be related in the short-run, but the empirical results strongly suggest that there is no long-run relationship between these variables.
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