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Mihell-Hale, Oliver (2025) Calibrated killing: examining the relationship between strategies of terrorism and types of violence. PhD thesis, University of Nottingham.

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Abstract

This thesis aims to answer two main questions. Firstly, what types of violence are associated with different strategies of terrorism? Secondly, what explains these patterns? Answering these questions is essential to understand how terrorist groups make decisions concerning which types of violence to employ. It also enables more effective counter terrorism policy to be devised and implemented. Past scholarly work has failed to address these questions because there has been insufficient research on strategy as a driver of terrorist group decision-making.

This study addresses this gap by offering theoretical development and empirical evidence to show that strategy is an important, but underappreciated, element in terrorist groups’ selection of types of violence. The starting point for this analysis is Kydd and Walter’s five strategies (i.e., spoiling, outbidding, attrition, provocation, intimidation). The thesis extends their model to explain and illustrate the types of violence (understood as casualty numbers, target selection, and weapon selection) associated with each of the five strategies.

To accomplish this, a sequential mixed methods case study approach is adopted. Hypotheses are developed for each type of violence in each strategy and tested through case studies. Each strategy is explored using two case studies of terrorist groups employing that particular strategy, in total examining 10 different groups that span between 1970-2014. Cases were selected to be typical cases across strategies, and within strategies, and differ as much as possible on key elements to increase generalisability. The sequential mixed methods approach used quantitative methods first and then employed qualitative research. The quantitative element leverages the Global Terrorism Database to identify the types of violence. The qualitative element involves the use of documentary evidence, primarily the groups’ own output, to provide evidence of strategy being a major factor in the decision to adopt these patterns of violence.

The thesis provides answers to the two research questions. The quantitative element for each strategy is able to identify the types of violence associated with strategies. The qualitative element is able to show that strategy is influential in the decision to employ these types of violence.

Item Type:	Thesis (University of Nottingham only) (PhD)
Supervisors:	Mumford, Andrew Klocek, Jason
Keywords:	Terrorism, strategy, spoiling, outbidding, provocation, intimidation, attrition, casualties, weapons, targets
Subjects:	H Social sciences > HV Social pathology. Social and public welfare J Political science > JA Political science (General)
Faculties/Schools:	UK Campuses > Faculty of Social Sciences, Law and Education > School of Politics and International Relations
Item ID:	81675
Depositing User:	Mihell-Hale, Oliver
Date Deposited:	11 Dec 2025 04:40
Last Modified:	11 Dec 2025 04:40
URI:	https://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/id/eprint/81675

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