Peter, Emmanuel
(2024)
Modelling optimal cropping, risk and constraints to livelihood among smallholder farmers in North-East Nigeria (NEN).
PhD thesis, University of Nottingham.
Abstract
Agriculture is the main employer of labour and plays a vital role in the Nigerian economy. The Nigerian agricultural sector is dominated by smallholder farmers who, not only depend on their land as a source of food and income but also produce most of the food consumed in Nigeria. However, these smallholder farmers face many challenges, particularly socio-economic constraints and uncertainty associated with variability of yields and prices. There is also the challenge of farm inputs price variability and concern for personal safety in the region, which altogether obstructs productivity for improved livelihood. The Northern region accounts for an approximate two-thirds of the total smallholder farmers in Nigeria, who face similar constraints and risk exposure.
In the light of this, this research employs modelling and optimisation approach to capture the elements of the problem that farmers' face: their constraint boundaries and the uncertainty of production in Northeast Nigeria (NEN). At the start, the background of the study was laid, the features of the farming system were conceptualised and built into the questionnaire. Using survey data collected in 2019, 2020 and 2021 from a sample of 120 farmers, two analytical approaches were used: Mathematical programming and Logistic regression modelling.
Aside the baseline maximum-resource model that was unrepresentative of the system, a typical farming system average-resourced farm level linear model was constructed using optimization technique that incorporated the ten most popular cropping activities, engaged by 80.8% (n=97) of the respondents. This was to determine an economically typical farming system optimal profit maximising solution, from among the popular enterprises within the boundary of observed average land and capital constraints levels. The optimal solution from the typical model was maize and bambaranut. However, profit was not the only consideration by farmers in the region, and with 88% of the respondents to have included food crops in their enterprises, which is indicative of food security risk averseness and “safety first” approach. A food security integrated and constrained models provided other scenario optimal solutions which revealed the negative impact of food-security constrained production pattern on profitability. Personal safety concern by farmers from long-time insurgency and clashes with herders in the region, has also been shown to affect productivity as modelled and analysed in the study.
Furthermore, a non-linear constrained model was employed in the analysis of farm plans which reveals farmers exposure to income risk from price and yield variability of crops. In all farm plans, beans, groundnut and bambaranut were the profit maximizing crops but with the highest variabilities relative to sorghum and maize. Farmers therefore diversify, through mixed cropping, alongside their varying objective, resource level and risk.
From the variance and covariance matrix of farm income and analysis of farming system characteristics, sorghum was revealed to contribute substantially to risk management. Sorghum is also liked by farmers as food security crop from its perceived ability to withstand changes in weather condition and could be grown with less resource available. Hence, factors influencing farmers decision for sorghum inclusion in cropping pattern were further investigated and reported.
Recommendations are drawn from the findings of the analyses. Furthermore, learnings from a visit to Japanese smallholders as part of international best practice have also been included.
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