The inverse forecast effect

Clarke, David and Blake, Holly (1997) The inverse forecast effect. Journal of Social Behaviour and Personality, 12 (4). pp. 999-1018.

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Social behaviour depends crucially on the way events are linked over time, and on how these linkages are perceived. From a given event, people may be able to infer what followed, or what preceded it. However these two tasks are not as similar as they may seem. Two experiments are reported in which participants had to infer subsequent events given earlier ones, or else the reverse. Performance was consistently more accurate when working ‘backwards’. We call this the ‘inverse forecast effect’. It raises issues about the strategies people use to predict and understand everyday events, and about just how the future is formed from the past.

Item Type: Article
Keywords: Prediction, Forecast, Sequence, Judgement, Hindsight, Scripts
Schools/Departments: University of Nottingham, UK > Faculty of Science > School of Psychology
Depositing User: Eprints, Support
Date Deposited: 12 May 2017 08:32
Last Modified: 04 May 2020 14:06

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