The impact of the Arab Spring on the Tunisian economy

Matta, Samer, Appleton, Simon and Bleaney, Michael (2016) The impact of the Arab Spring on the Tunisian economy. World Bank Economic Review . ISSN 1564-698X

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This paper uses Synthetic Control Methodology to estimate the output loss in Tunisia as a result of the “Arab Spring.” The results suggest that the loss was 5.5 percent, 5.1 percent, and 6.4 percent of GDP in 2011, 2012, and 2013 respectively. These findings are robust to a series of tests, including placebo tests, and are consistent with those from an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model of Tunisia’s economic growth. Moreover, this paper finds that investment was the main channel through which the economy was adversely impacted by the Arab Spring.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: This is a pre-copyedited, author-produced PDF of an article accepted for publication in World Bank Economic Review following peer review. The version of record The Impact of the Arab Spring on the Tunisian Economy World Bank Econ Rev first published online November 17, 2016 is available online at:
Keywords: Arab Spring, Tunisia, Economic Impact, Synthetic Control Methodology
Schools/Departments: University of Nottingham, UK > Faculty of Social Sciences > School of Economics
Identification Number:
Depositing User: Eprints, Support
Date Deposited: 07 Nov 2016 09:44
Last Modified: 04 May 2020 18:20

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