Forecasting tourism recovery amid COVID-19

Zhang, Hanyuan and Song, Haiyan and Wen, Long and Liu, Chang (2021) Forecasting tourism recovery amid COVID-19. Annals of Tourism Research, 87 . p. 103149. ISSN 01607383

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Abstract

The profound impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on global tourism activity has rendered forecasts of tourism demand obsolete. Accordingly, scholars have begun to seek the best methods to predict the recovery of tourism from the devastating effects of COVID-19. In this study, econometric and judgmental methods were combined to forecast the possible paths to tourism recovery in Hong Kong. The autoregressive distributed lag-error correction model was used to generate baseline forecasts, and Delphi adjustments based on different recovery scenarios were performed to reflect different levels of severity in terms of the pandemic’s influence. These forecasts were also used to evaluate the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the tourism industry in Hong Kong.

Item Type: Article
Keywords: COVID-19; tourism demand; crisis management; Delphi method; forecasting scenarios
Schools/Departments: University of Nottingham Ningbo China > Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences > School of Economics
Identification Number: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annals.2021.103149
Depositing User: Wu, Cocoa
Date Deposited: 10 Mar 2021 06:16
Last Modified: 10 Mar 2021 06:16
URI: http://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/id/eprint/64690

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