Species distribution modelling of Egyptian plants under climate changeTools Kaky, E. (2018) Species distribution modelling of Egyptian plants under climate change. PhD thesis, University of Nottingham.
AbstractIt is thought that climate change will have a major impact on species distributions by changing the habitat suitability for species. Species distribution modelling is a modern approach to assess the potential effect of climate change on biodiversity. We used 11 environmental variables with the MaxEnt algorithm to model the distributions of 114 Egyptian medicinal plant species under current conditions, then projecting them into three different future times (2020, 2050, and 2080) under two different climate-change emission scenarios (A2a and B2a), under two hypotheses about the capability of the species for dispersal (unlimited and no dispersal). Species richness maps for current and future times were produced. We tested the value of Egypt’s Protected Areas under climate change by estimating the species richness inside and outside under each scenario. We assessed Egyptian medicinal plants based on IUCN Red List categories and criteria, and then used the SDMs for conservation planning with and without consideration of socioeconomic factors using Zonation software.
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