New entry, strategic diversity and efficiency in soccer betting markets: the creation and suppression of arbitrage opportunitiesTools Grant, Andrew, Oikonomidis, Anastasios, Bruce, Alistair C. and Johnson, Johnnie E.V. (2018) New entry, strategic diversity and efficiency in soccer betting markets: the creation and suppression of arbitrage opportunities. European Journal of Finance . ISSN 1466-4364
AbstractWe find that prices offered by competing bookmakers within the same quote-driven soccer (football) betting market provide arbitrage opportunities. However, the management practices of bookmakers prevent informed bettors exploiting these in practice. We identify two groups of bookmakers, ‘position-takers’ and ‘book-balancers.’ Position-takers alter their odds infrequently, while actively restricting informed traders. Book-balancers actively manage inventory by adjusting odds, and place few restrictions on their customers. We identify 545 arbitrage portfolios, and find that around 50% would require a bet on the favourite at the position-taking bookmaker. The management practices of position-takers generally prevent these opportunities being exploited in practice.
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