Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming–simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b)

Frieler, Katja and Lange, Stefan and Piontek, Franziska and Reyer, Christopher P.O. and Schewe, Jacob and Warszawski, Lila and Zhao, Fang and Chini, Louise and Denvil, Sebastien and Emanuel, Kerry and Geiger, Tobias and Halladay, Kate and Hurtt, George and Mengel, Matthias and Murakami, Daisuke and Ostberg, Sebastian and Popp, Alexander and Riva, Riccardo and Stevanovic, Miodrag and Suzuki, Tatsuo and Volkholz, Jan and Burke, Eleanor and Ciais, Philippe and Ebi, Kristie and Eddy, Tyler D. and Elliott, Joshua and Galbraith, Eric and Gosling, Simon N. and Hattermann, Fred and Hickler, Thomas and Hinkel, Jochen and Hof, Christian and Huber, Veronika and Jägermeyr, Jonas and Krysanova, Valentina and Marcé, Rafael and Müller Schmied, Hannes and Mouratiadou, Ioanna and Pierson, Don and Tittensor, Derek P. and Vautard, Robert and van Vliet, Michelle and Biber, Matthias F. and Betts, Richard A. and Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon and Deryng, Delphine and Frolking, Steve and Jones, Chris D. and Lotze, Heike K. and Lotze-Campen, Hermann and Sahajpal, Ritvik and Thonicke, Kirsten and Tian, Hanqin and Yamagata, Yoshiki (2017) Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming–simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b). Geoscientific Model Development, 10 (12). pp. 4321-4345. ISSN 1991-9603

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Abstract

In Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide a "special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways". In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016, the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe the response devised within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) to provide tailored, cross-sectorally consistent impact projections to broaden the scientific basis for the report. The simulation protocol is designed to allow for (1) separation of the impacts of historical warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from impacts of other drivers such as historical land-use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simulations); (2) quantification of the impacts of additional warming up to 1.5 °C, including a potential overshoot and long-term impacts up to 2299, and comparison to higher levels of global mean temperature change (based on the low-emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation pathway RCP6.0) with socio-economic conditions fixed at 2005 levels; and (3) assessment of the climate effects based on the same climate scenarios while accounting for simultaneous changes in socio-economic conditions following the middle-of-the-road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2, Fricko et al., 2016) and in particular differential bioenergy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to comply with RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0. With the aim of providing the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and analysis of cross-sectoral interactions that may dampen or amplify sectoral impacts, the protocol is designed to facilitate consistent impact projections from a range of impact models across different sectors (global and regional hydrology, lakes, global crops, global vegetation, regional forests, global and regional marine ecosystems and fisheries, global and regional coastal infrastructure, energy supply and demand, temperature-related mortality, and global terrestrial biodiversity).

Item Type: Article
Schools/Departments: University of Nottingham, UK > Faculty of Social Sciences > School of Geography
Identification Number: 10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017
Depositing User: Eprints, Support
Date Deposited: 15 Dec 2017 13:29
Last Modified: 18 Dec 2017 01:53
URI: http://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/id/eprint/48771

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