Increased efficiency in the second-hand tire trade provides opportunity for dengue control

Pliego Pliego, Emilene and Velázquez-Castro, Jorge and Eichhorn, Markus P. and Fraguela Collar, Andrés (2018) Increased efficiency in the second-hand tire trade provides opportunity for dengue control. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 437 . pp. 126-136. ISSN 1095-8541

[img] PDF - Repository staff only until 31 October 2018. - Requires a PDF viewer such as GSview, Xpdf or Adobe Acrobat Reader
Available under Licence Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial No Derivatives.
Download (1MB)

Abstract

Dengue fever is increasing in geographical range, spread by invasion of its vector mosquitoes. The trade in second-hand tires has been implicated as a factor in this process because they act as mobile reservoirs of mosquito eggs and larvae. Regional transportation of tires can create linkages between rural areas with dengue and disease-free urban areas, potentially giving rise to outbreaks even in areas with strong local control measures. In this work we sought to model the dynamics of mosquito transportation via the tire trade, in particular to predict its role in causing unexpected dengue outbreaks through vertical transmission of the virus across generations of mosquitoes. We also aimed to identify strategies for regulating the trade in second-hand tires, improving disease control. We created a mathematical model which captures the dynamics of dengue between rural and urban areas, taking into account the movement and storage time of tires, and mosquito diapause. We simulate a series of scenarios in which a mosquito population is introduced to a dengue-free area via movement of tires, either as single or multiple events, increasing the likelihood of a dengue outbreak. A persistent disease state can be induced regardless of whether urban conditions for an outbreak are met, and an existing endemic state can be enhanced by vector input. Finally we assess the potential for regulation of tire processing as a means of reducing the transmission of dengue fever using a specific case study from Puerto Rico. Our work demonstrates the importance of the second-hand tire trade in modulating the spread of dengue fever across regions, in particular its role in introducing dengue to disease-free areas. We propose that reduction of tire storage time and control of their movement can play a crucial role in containing dengue outbreaks.

Item Type: Article
Keywords: Aedes; vertical transmission; diapause; reservoirs; transportation; mobility; metapopulations
Schools/Departments: University of Nottingham, UK > Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences > School of Life Sciences
Identification Number: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2017.10.025
Depositing User: Eichhorn, Markus
Date Deposited: 15 Nov 2017 13:24
Last Modified: 15 Nov 2017 14:51
URI: http://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/id/eprint/48132

Actions (Archive Staff Only)

Edit View Edit View