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Whelan, Robert and Watts, Richard and Orr, Catherine A. and Althoff, Robert R. and Artiges, Eric and Banaschewski, Tobias and Barker, Gareth J. and Bokde, Arun L. W. and Büchel, Christian and Carvalho, Fabiana M. and Conrod, Patricia J. and Flor, Herta and Fauth-Bühler, Mira and Frouin, Vincent and Gallinat, Juergen and Gan, Gabriela and Gowland, Penny and Heinz, Andreas and Ittermann, Bernd and Lawrence, Claire and Mann, Karl and Martinot, Jean-Luc and Nees, Frauke and Ortiz, Nick and Paillère-Martinot, Marie-Laure and Paus, Tomas and Pausova, Zdenka and Rietschel, Marcella and Robbins, Trevor W. and Smolka, Michael N. and Ströhle, Andreas and Schumann, Gunter and Garavan, Hugh and Albrecht, Lisa and Arroyo, Mercedes and Aydin, Semiha and Bach, Christine and Barbot, Alexis and Bricaud, Zuleima and Bromberg, Uli and Bruehl, Ruediger and Cattrell, Anna and Czech, Katharina and Dalley, Jeffrey and Desrivieres, Sylvane and Fadai, Tahmine and Fuchs, Birgit and Gollier Briand, Fanny and Head, Kay and Heinrichs, Bert and Heym, Nadja and Hübner, Thomas and Ihlenfeld, Albrecht and Ireland, James and Ivanov, Nikolay and Jia, Tianye and Jones, Jennifer and Kepa, Agnes and Lanzerath, Dirk and Lathrop, Mark and Lemaitre, Hervé and Lüdemann, Katharina and Martinez-Medina, Lourdes and Mignon, Xavier and Miranda, Ruben and Müller, Kathrin and Nymberg, Charlotte and Pentilla, Jani and Poline, Jean-Baptiste and Poustka, Luise and Rapp, Michael and Ripke, Stephan and Rodehacke, Sarah and Rogers, John and Romanowski, Alexander and Ruggeri, Barbara and Schmäl, Christine and Schmidt, Dirk and Schneider, Sophia and Schroeder, Markus and Schubert, Florian and Sommer, Wolfgang and Spanagel, Rainer and Stacey, David and Steiner, Sabina and Stephens, Dai and Strache, Nicole and Struve, Maren and Tahmasebi, Amir and Topper, Lauren and Vulser, Helene and Walaszek, Bernadeta and Werts, Helen and Williams, Steve and Peng Wong, C. and Yacubian, Juliana and Ziesch, Veronika (2014) Neuropsychosocial profiles of current and future adolescent alcohol misusers. Nature, 512 (7513). pp. 185-189. ISSN 1476-4687

Abstract

A comprehensive account of the causes of alcohol misuse must accommodate individual differences in biology, psychology and environment, and must disentangle cause and effect. Animal models1 can demonstrate the effects of neurotoxic substances; however, they provide limited insight into the psycho-social and higher cognitive factors involved in the initiation of substance use and progression to misuse. One can search for pre-existing risk factors by testing for endophenotypic biomarkers2 in non-using relatives; however, these relatives may have personality or neural resilience factors that protect them from developing dependence3. A longitudinal study has potential to identify predictors of adolescent substance misuse, particularly if it can incorporate a wide range of potential causal factors, both proximal and distal, and their influence on numerous social, psychological and biological mechanisms4. Here we apply machine learning to a wide range of data from a large sample of adolescents (n = 692) to generate models of current and future adolescent alcohol misuse that incorporate brain structure and function, individual personality and cognitive differences, environmental factors (including gestational cigarette and alcohol exposure), life experiences, and candidate genes. These models were accurate and generalized to novel data, and point to life experiences, neurobiological differences and personality as important antecedents of binge drinking. By identifying the vulnerability factors underlying individual differences in alcohol misuse, these models shed light on the aetiology of alcohol misuse and suggest targets for prevention.

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