A study on probability of distribution loads based on expectation maximization algorithm

Ganjavi, Amin and Christopher, Edward and Johnson, Christopher Mark and Clare, Jon C. (2017) A study on probability of distribution loads based on expectation maximization algorithm. In: Innovative Smart Grid Technologies (ISGT 2017), 23-26 April 2017, Arlington, VA, USA.

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Abstract

In a distribution power network, the load model has no certain pattern or predicted behaviour due to large range of data and changes in energy consumption for end-user consumers. Thus, a powerful analysis based on probabilistic structure is required. For this paper Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) has been used. GMM is a powerful probability model that allows different types of load distributions to be presented as a combination of several Gaussian distributions. The parameters of GMM is unknown for large random data such as real load data and these parameters can be identified by Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm. This paper presents a method to evaluate probabilistic load data concerning the time-evolution of any type of distribution load for any duration of time. The proposed method is explained through generated load data of 100 residential houses for duration of one year.

Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)
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Keywords: Expectation Maximization, Gaussian Mixture Model, Load forecasting and Probability, Probability Density Function
Schools/Departments: University of Nottingham, UK > Faculty of Engineering > Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering
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Depositing User: Burns, Rebecca
Date Deposited: 23 Aug 2017 12:34
Last Modified: 30 Aug 2017 12:10
URI: http://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/id/eprint/44837

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