Inferring R0 in emerging epidemics: the effect of common population structure is small

Trapman, Pieter and Ball, Frank and Dhersin, Jean-Stéphane and Tran, Viet Chi and Wallinga, Jacco and Britton, Tom (2016) Inferring R0 in emerging epidemics: the effect of common population structure is small. Journal of the Royal Society Interface, 13 (121). 20160288/1-20160288/9. ISSN 1742-5689

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Abstract

When controlling an emerging outbreak of an infectious disease, it is essential to know the key epidemiological parameters, such as the basic reproduction number R0 and the control effort required to prevent a large outbreak. These parameters are estimated from the observed incidence of new cases and information about the infectious contact structures of the population in which the disease spreads. However, the relevant infectious contact structures for new, emerging infections are often unknown or hard to obtain. Here, we show that, for many common true underlying heterogeneous contact structures, the simplification to neglect such structures and instead assume that all contacts are made homogeneously in the whole population results in conservative estimates for R0 and the required control effort. This means that robust control policies can be planned during the early stages of an outbreak, using such conservative estimates of the required control effort.

Item Type: Article
Keywords: Infectious disease modelling, Emerging epidemics, Population Structure, Real-time spread, R0
Schools/Departments: University of Nottingham, UK > Faculty of Science > School of Mathematical Sciences
Identification Number: 10.1098/rsif.2016.0288
Depositing User: Eprints, Support
Date Deposited: 10 Feb 2017 13:31
Last Modified: 15 Oct 2017 17:27
URI: http://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/id/eprint/40526

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