Development and validation of risk prediction model for venous thromboembolism in postpartum women: multinational cohort study

Sultan, Alyshah Abdul and West, Joe and Grainge, Matthew J. and Riley, Richard D. and Tata, Laila J. and Stephansson, Olof and Fleming, Kate M. and Nelson-Piercy, Catherine and Ludvigsson, Jonas F. (2016) Development and validation of risk prediction model for venous thromboembolism in postpartum women: multinational cohort study. BMJ, 355 (i6253). pp. 1-9. ISSN 1756-1833

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Abstract

Objective: To develop and validate a risk prediction model for venous thromboembolism in the first six weeks after delivery (early postpartum).

Design: Cohort study.

Setting: Records from England based Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) linked to Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) and data from Sweden based registry.

Participants: All pregnant women registered with CPRD-HES linked data between 1997 and 2014 and Swedish medical birth registry between 2005 and 2011 with postpartum follow-up.

Main outcome measure: Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to develop a risk prediction model for postpartum venous thromboembolism based on the English data, which was externally validated in the Swedish data.

Results: 433 353 deliveries were identified in the English cohort and 662 387 in the Swedish cohort. The absolute rate of venous thromboembolism was 7.2 per 10 000 deliveries in the English cohort and 7.9 per 10 000 in the Swedish cohort. Emergency caesarean delivery, stillbirth, varicose veins, pre-eclampsia/eclampsia, postpartum infection, and comorbidities were the strongest predictors of venous thromboembolism in the final multivariable model. Discrimination of the model was similar in both cohorts, with a C statistic above 0.70, with excellent calibration of observed and predicted risks. The model identified more venous thromboembolism events than the existing national English (sensitivity 68% v 63%) and Swedish guidelines (30% v 21%) at similar thresholds.

Conclusion: A new prediction model that quantifies absolute risk of postpartum venous thromboembolism has been developed and externally validated. It is based on clinical variables that are available in many developed countries at the point of delivery and could serve as the basis for real time decisions on obstetric thromboprophylaxis.%U http://www.bmj.com/content/bmj/355/bmj.i6253.full.pdf

Item Type: Article
Schools/Departments: University of Nottingham, UK > Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences > School of Medicine > Division of Epidemiology and Public Health
Identification Number: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.i6253
Depositing User: Claringburn, Tara
Date Deposited: 07 Dec 2016 10:43
Last Modified: 07 Dec 2016 15:14
URI: http://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/id/eprint/39195

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