Out of hours workload management: Bayesian inference for decision support in secondary care

Pérez López, Iker and Brown, Michael and Pinchin, James and Martindale, Sarah and Sharples, Sarah and Shaw, Dominick E. and Blakey, John (2016) Out of hours workload management: Bayesian inference for decision support in secondary care. Artificial Intelligence in Medicine . ISSN 1873-2860

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Abstract

Objective: In this paper, we aim to evaluate the use of electronic technologies in Out of Hours (OoH) task-management for assisting the design of effective support systems in health care; targeting local facilities, wards or specific working groups. In addition, we seek to draw and validate conclusions with relevance to a frequently revised service, subject to increasing pressures.

Methods and Material: We have analysed 4 years of digitised demand-data extracted from a recently deployed electronic task-management system, within the Hospital at Night setting in two jointly coordinated hospitals in the United Kingdom. The methodology employed relies on Bayesian inference methods and parameter-driven state-space models for multivariate series of count data.

Results: Main results support claims relating to (i) the importance of data-driven staffing alternatives and (ii) demand forecasts serving as a basis to intelligent scheduling within working groups. We have displayed a split in workload patterns across groups of medical and surgical specialities, and sustained assertions regarding staff behaviour and work-need changes according to shifts or days of the week. Also, we have provided evidence regarding the relevance of day-to-day planning and prioritisation.

Conclusions: The work exhibits potential contributions of electronic tasking alternatives for the purpose of data-driven support systems design; for scheduling, prioritisation and management of care delivery. Electronic tasking technologies provide means to design intelligent systems specific to a ward, speciality or task-type; hence, the paper emphasizes the importance of replacing traditional pager-based approaches to management for modern alternatives.

Item Type: Article
Keywords: Healthcare Management, Multivariate Time Series, Count Data, Out of Hours, Graphical Model
Schools/Departments: University of Nottingham UK Campus > Faculty of Engineering
University of Nottingham UK Campus > Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences
University of Nottingham UK Campus > Faculty of Science > School of Computer Science
Identification Number: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.artmed.2016.09.005
Depositing User: Perez, Iker
Date Deposited: 30 Sep 2016 14:13
Last Modified: 11 Oct 2016 20:32
URI: http://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/id/eprint/37274

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