A web-based tool for eliciting probability distributions from experts

Morris, David E. and Oakley, Jeremy E. and Crowe, John A. (2014) A web-based tool for eliciting probability distributions from experts. Environmental Modelling and Software, 52 . pp. 1-4. ISSN 1873-6726

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We present a web-based probability distribution elicitation tool: The MATCH Uncertainty Elicitation Tool. The Tool is designed to help elicit probability distributions about uncertain model parameters from experts, in situations where suitable data is either unavailable or sparse. The Tool is free to use, and offers five different techniques for eliciting univariate probability distributions. A key feature of the Tool is that users can log in from different sites and view and interact with the same graphical displays, so that expert elicitation sessions can be conducted remotely (in conjunction with tele- or videoconferencing). This will make probability elicitation easier in situations where it is difficult to interview experts in person. Even when conducting elicitation remotely, interviewers will be able to follow good elicitation practice, advise the experts, and provide instantaneous feedback and assistance.

Item Type: Article
Keywords: Bayesian prior distribution; Expert judgement; Subjective probability; Web-based elicitation
Schools/Departments: University of Nottingham UK Campus > Faculty of Engineering
Identification Number: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2013.10.010
Depositing User: Eprints, Support
Date Deposited: 14 Jul 2016 08:41
Last Modified: 26 Sep 2016 15:27
URI: http://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/id/eprint/35002

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