Global, regional, and national levels of neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality during 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Wang, Haidong and Liddell, Chelsea A and Coates, Matthew M and Mooney, Meghan D and Levitz, Carly E and Schumacher, Austin E and Apfel, Henry and Iannarone, Marissa and Phillips, Bryan and Lofgren, Katherine T and Sandar, Logan and Dorrington, Rob E and Rakovac, Ivo and Jacobs, Troy A and Liang, Xiaofeng and Zhou, Maigeng and Zhu, Jun and Yang, Gonghuan and Wang, Yanping and Liu, Shiwei and Li, Yichong and Ozgoren, Ayse Abbasoglu and Abera, Semaw Ferede and Abubakar, Ibrahim and Achoki, Tom and Adelekan, Ademola and Ademi, Zanfina and Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw and Allen, Peter J and AlMazroa, Mohammad AbdulAziz and Alvarez, Elena and Amankwaa, Adansi A and Amare, Azmeraw T and Ammar, Walid and Anwari, Palwasha and Cunningham, Solveig Argeseanu and Asad, Majed Masoud and Assadi, Reza and Banerjee, Amitava and Basu, Sanjay and Bedi, Neeraj and Bekele, Tolesa and Bell, Michelle L and Bhutta, Zulfiqar and Blore, Jed D and Basara, Berrak Bora and Boufous, Soufiane and Breitborde, Nicholas and Bruce, Nigel G and Bui, Linh Ngoc and Carapetis, Jonathan R and Cárdenas, Rosario and Carpenter, David O and Caso, Valeria and Castro, Ruben Estanislao and Catalá-Lopéz, Ferrán and Cavlin, Alanur and Che, Xuan and Chiang, Peggy Pei-Chia and Chowdhury, Rajiv and Christophi, Costas A and Chuang, Ting-Wu and Cirillo, Massimo and da Costa Leite, Iuri and Courville, Karen J and Dandona, Lalit and Dandona, Rakhi and Davis, Adrian and Dayama, Anand and Deribe, Kebede and Dharmaratne, Samath D and Dherani, Mukesh K and Dilmen, Uğur and Ding, Eric L and Edmond, Karen M and Ermakov, Sergei Petrovich and Farzadfar, Farshad and Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad and Fijabi, Daniel Obadare and Foigt, Nataliya and Forouzanfar, Mohammad H and Garcia, Ana C and Geleijnse, Johanna M and Gessner, Bradford D and Goginashvili, Ketevan and Gona, Philimon and Goto, Atsushi and Gouda, Hebe N and Green, Mark A and Greenwell, Karen Fern and Gugnani, Harish Chander and Gupta, Rahul and Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi and Hammami, Mouhanad and Harb, Hilda L and Hay, Simon and Hedayati, Mohammad T and Hosgood, H Dean and Hoy, Damian G and Idrisov, Bulat T and Islami, Farhad and Ismayilova, Samaya and Jha, Vivekanand and Jiang, Guohong and Jonas, Jost B and Juel, Knud and Kabagambe, Edmond Kato and Kazi, Dhruv S and Kengne, Andre Pascal and Kereselidze, Maia and Khader, Yousef Saleh and Khalifa, Shams Eldin Ali Hassan and Khang, Young-Ho and Kim, Daniel and Kinfu, Yohannes and Kinge, Jonas M and Kokubo, Yoshihiro and Kosen, Soewarta and Defo, Barthelemy Kuate and Kumar, G Anil and Kumar, Kaushalendra and Kumar, Ravi B and Lai, Taavi and Lan, Qing and Larsson, Anders and Lee, Jong-Tae and Leinsalu, Mall and Lim, Stephen S and Lipshultz, Steven E and Logroscino, Giancarlo and Lotufo, Paulo A and Lunevicius, Raimundas and Lyons, Ronan Anthony and Ma, Stefan and Mahdi, Abbas Ali and Marzan, Melvin Barrientos and Mashal, Mohammad Taufiq and Mazorodze, Tasara T and McGrath, John J and Memish, Ziad A and Mendoza, Walter and Mensah, George A and Meretoja, Atte and Miller, Ted R and Mills, Edward J and Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin and Mokdad, Ali H and Monasta, Lorenzo and Montico, Marcella and Moore, Ami R and Moschandreas, Joanna and Msemburi, William T and Mueller, Ulrich O and Muszynska, Magdalena M and Naghavi, Mohsen and Naidoo, Kovin S and Narayan, KM Venkat and Nejjari, Chakib and Ng, Marie and de Dieu Ngirabega, Jean and Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark J and Nyakarahuka, Luke and Ohkubo, Takayoshi and Omer, Saad B and Caicedo, Angel J Paternina and Wyk, Victoria Pillay-van and Pope, Dan and Pourmalek, Farshad and Prabhakaran, Dorairaj and Rahman, Sajjad UR and Rana, Saleem M and Reilly, Robert Quentin and Rojas-Rueda, David and Ronfani, Luca and Rushton, Lesley and Saeedi, Mohammad Yahya and Salomon, Joshua A and Sampson, Uchechukwu and Santos, Itamar S and Sawhney, Monika and Schmidt, Jürgen C and Shakh-Nazarova, Marina and She, Jun and Sheikhbahaei, Sara and Shibuya, Kenji and Shin, Hwashin Hyun and Shishani, Kawkab and Shiue, Ivy and Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora and Singh, Jasvinder A and Skirbekk, Vegard and Sliwa, Karen and Soshnikov, Sergey S and Sposato, Luciano A and Stathopoulou, Vasiliki Kalliopi and Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos and Tabb, Karen M and Talongwa, Roberto Tchio and Teixeira, Carolina Maria and Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman and Thomson, Alan J and Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L and Toyoshima, Hideaki and Dimbuene, Zacharie Tsala and Uwaliraye, Parfait and Uzun, Selen Begüm and Vasankari, Tommi J and Vasconcelos, Ana Maria Nogales and Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich and Vollset, Stein Emil and Waller, Stephen and Wan, Xia and Weichenthal, Scott and Weiderpass, Elisabete and Weintraub, Robert G and Westerman, Ronny and Wilkinson, James D and Williams, Hywel C and Yang, Yang C and Yentur, Gokalp Kadri and Yip, Paul and Yonemoto, Naohiro and Younis, Mustafa and Yu, Chuanhua and Jin, Kim Yun and El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa and Zhu, Shankuan and Vos, Theo and Lopez, Alan D and Murray, Christopher J L (2014) Global, regional, and national levels of neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality during 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013. The Lancet, 384 (9947). pp. 957-979. ISSN 1474-547X

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Abstract

Background

Remarkable financial and political efforts have been focused on the reduction of child mortality during the past few decades. Timely measurements of levels and trends in under-5 mortality are important to assess progress towards the Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4) target of reduction of child mortality by two thirds from 1990 to 2015, and to identify models of success.

Methods

We generated updated estimates of child mortality in early neonatal (age 0–6 days), late neonatal (7–28 days), postneonatal (29–364 days), childhood (1–4 years), and under-5 (0–4 years) age groups for 188 countries from 1970 to 2013, with more than 29 000 survey, census, vital registration, and sample registration datapoints. We used Gaussian process regression with adjustments for bias and non-sampling error to synthesise the data for under-5 mortality for each country, and a separate model to estimate mortality for more detailed age groups. We used explanatory mixed effects regression models to assess the association between under-5 mortality and income per person, maternal education, HIV child death rates, secular shifts, and other factors. To quantify the contribution of these different factors and birth numbers to the change in numbers of deaths in under-5 age groups from 1990 to 2013, we used Shapley decomposition. We used estimated rates of change between 2000 and 2013 to construct under-5 mortality rate scenarios out to 2030.

Findings

We estimated that 6·3 million (95% UI 6·0–6·6) children under-5 died in 2013, a 64% reduction from 17·6 million (17·1–18·1) in 1970. In 2013, child mortality rates ranged from 152·5 per 1000 livebirths (130·6–177·4) in Guinea-Bissau to 2·3 (1·8–2·9) per 1000 in Singapore. The annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2013 ranged from –6·8% to 0·1%. 99 of 188 countries, including 43 of 48 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, had faster decreases in child mortality during 2000–13 than during 1990–2000. In 2013, neonatal deaths accounted for 41·6% of under-5 deaths compared with 37·4% in 1990. Compared with 1990, in 2013, rising numbersof births, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, led to 1·4 million more child deaths, and rising income per person and maternal education led to 0·9 million and 2·2 million fewer deaths, respectively. Changes in secular trends led to 4·2 million fewer deaths. Unexplained factors accounted for only –1% of the change in child deaths. In 30 developing countries, decreases since 2000 have been faster than predicted attributable to income, education, and secular shift alone.

Interpretation

Only 27 developing countries are expected to achieve MDG 4. Decreases since 2000 in under-5 mortality rates are accelerating in many developing countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. The Millennium Declaration and increased development assistance for health might have been a factor in faster decreases in some developing countries. Without further accelerated progress, many countries in west and central Africa will still have high levels of under-5 mortality in 2030.

Item Type: Article
Schools/Departments: University of Nottingham UK Campus > Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences > School of Medicine
Identification Number: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(14)60497-9
Depositing User: Eprints, Support
Date Deposited: 09 May 2016 09:52
Last Modified: 09 May 2016 09:52
URI: http://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/id/eprint/33047

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