Beyond chance? The persistence of performance in online poker

Potter van Loon, Rogjer J.D. and van den Assem, Martijn J. and van Dolder, Dennie (2015) Beyond chance? The persistence of performance in online poker. PLoS ONE, 10 (3). e0115479/1-e0115479/23. ISSN 1932-6203

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Abstract

A major issue in the widespread controversy about the legality of poker and the appropriate taxation of winnings is whether poker should be considered a game of skill or a game of chance. To inform this debate we present an analysis into the role of skill in the performance of online poker players, using a large database with hundreds of millions of player-hand observations from real money ring games at three different stakes levels. We find that players whose earlier profitability was in the top (bottom) deciles perform better (worse) and are substantially more likely to end up in the top (bottom) performance deciles of the following time period. Regression analyses of performance on historical performance and other skill-related proxies provide further evidence for persistence and predictability. Simulations point out that skill dominates chance when performance is measured over 1,500 or more hands of play.

Item Type: Article
Keywords: poker, online poker, no limit texas hold’em, online gambling, skill, chance, game of skill, game of chance, performance persistence , predominance test
Schools/Departments: University of Nottingham UK Campus > Faculty of Social Sciences > School of Economics
Identification Number: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0115479
Depositing User: Van Dolder, Dennie
Date Deposited: 17 Nov 2015 09:19
Last Modified: 16 Sep 2016 09:10
URI: http://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/id/eprint/30839

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