Tax revenue performance and vulnerability in developing countries
Morrissey, Oliver and Haldenwang, Christian von and Schiller, Armin von and Ivanyna, Maksym and Bordon, Ingo (2016) Tax revenue performance and vulnerability in developing countries. Journal of Development Studies . ISSN 0022-0388 (In Press)
This paper addresses vulnerability of revenue to external shocks using export composition to capture economic structure and differentiating countries according to income levels, resource endowments and political regimes. This gives a richer characterization than previous studies. Lower income countries are vulnerable to shocks, especially in terms of trade (associated with the greatest revenue loss): democratic regimes seem to be less vulnerable to revenue losses due to shocks than non-democracies whereas revenue in resource rich is more vulnerable to shocks (except natural disasters) than non-resource rich countries. We find a negative relationship between manufacturing exports and revenue in lower income countries.
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