Management interventions in dairy herds: exploring within herd uncertainty using an integrated Bayesian model

Green, Martin J. and Medley, Graham F. and Bradley, Andrew J. and Browne, William J. (2009) Management interventions in dairy herds: exploring within herd uncertainty using an integrated Bayesian model. Veterinary Research, 41 (2). Article 22. ISSN 0928-4249

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Abstract

Knowledge of the efficacy of an intervention for disease control on an individual farm is

essential to make good decisions on preventive healthcare, but the uncertainty in outcome associated with

undertaking a specific control strategy has rarely been considered in veterinary medicine. The purpose of

this research was to explore the uncertainty in change in disease incidence and financial benefit that could

occur on different farms, when two effective farm management interventions are undertaken. Bovine

mastitis was used as an example disease and the research was conducted using data from an intervention

study as prior information within an integrated Bayesian simulation model. Predictions were made of the

reduction in clinical mastitis within 30 days of calving on 52 farms, attributable to the application of two

herd interventions previously reported as effective; rotation of dry cow pasture and differential dry cow

therapy. Results indicated that there were important degrees of uncertainty in the predicted reduction in

clinical mastitis for individual farms when either intervention was undertaken; the magnitude of the 95%

credible intervals for reduced clinical mastitis incidence were substantial and of clinical relevance. The large

uncertainty associated with the predicted reduction in clinical mastitis attributable to the interventions

resulted in important variability in possible financial outcomes for each farm. The uncertainty in outcome

associated with farm control measures illustrates the difficulty facing a veterinary clinician when making an

on-farm decision and highlights the importance of iterative herd health procedures (continual evaluation,

reassessment and adjusted interventions) to optimise health in an individual herd.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: disease control, dairy cow, uncertainty within herd, Bayesian model
Schools/Departments: University of Nottingham UK Campus > Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences > School of Veterinary Medicine and Science
Depositing User: Green, Prof Martin
Date Deposited: 19 Apr 2010 15:29
Last Modified: 19 Apr 2010 15:29
URI: http://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/id/eprint/1272

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